Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
